We’re just getting into fall here in Montana, but before you know it, winter will be here. 

That means there are already plenty of people wondering what kind of snow we're going to get this year. 

After all, winter in Montana isn't just about skiing and snowboarding. We’ve got cross-country skiing, snowshoeing, winter hiking, snowmobiling, and plenty of other outdoor activities that depend on having a decent winter. 

The Impact of El Niño on Winter Activities

One of the big questions this year is what a very strong El Niño could mean for Montana. 

We’ve been watching the long-range forecasts from NOAA and the Old Farmer’s Almanac, and they don't exactly agree on what winter could look like. 

Divergent Forecasts: NOAA vs. Old Farmer's Almanac

NOAA's latest outlook says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the fall and winter of 2026-27. NOAA's winter outlook also favors warmer-than-normal temperatures across much of the northern Rockies, along with below-normal precipitation in parts of the region.  

READ MORE: NOAA’s Updated Montana Winter Forecast Isn’t Great News for Snow

That's not exactly what skiers and snowboarders want to hear. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac, however, has a different take. 

Its 2026-27 forecast calls for a warmer and wetter winter in the Intermountain region, with above-normal snowfall. The Intermountain region includes western Montana.  

So who knows what Mother Nature will do? 

One thing we do know is that Montana's biggest ski resort isn't particularly worried about the potential for a strong El Niño. 

Big Sky Resort's Historical Snowfall Trends

Big Sky Resort recently took a look at its own historical snowfall data, and the numbers are pretty interesting. 

According to Big Sky, its ski patrol weather records go back 34 seasons, all the way to 1991.

During that time, full-season snowfall totals have varied by only about 16% from year to year. 

READ MORE: NOAA and Old Farmer’s Almanac Disagree on Montana’s Winter

Big Sky says it averages around 400 inches of snow per season and has one of the lowest standard deviations in annual snowfall of any resort in the West.  

In other words, even when Montana's weather patterns change, Big Sky's snowfall totals have historically stayed relatively consistent. 

Big Sky's Snow Safety Assistant Director Chelan Babineau-Z says the resort's snowfall generally trends toward average. 

When the season starts slowly, the resort has historically tended to make up some of that ground later, particularly during the heart of winter.  

That's encouraging if you're already thinking about ski season. 

Seasonal Patterns: No Month Left Behind

Another interesting thing about Big Sky's historical snowfall is that the resort doesn't appear to rely on one particular month to make the season. 

The resort's data shows snowfall continuing throughout the winter rather than having one month that determines whether it's going to be a good season. 

That's important when you're looking at a long-range forecast this far out. 

Looking Ahead: What Does This Mean for Ski Season?

A slow start doesn't necessarily mean the entire ski season is going to be a bust. 

Big Sky says its snowfall has historically continued to show up throughout the season. 

The resort is also scheduled to start spinning its lifts for the 2026-27 season on November 25.  

So, while we're going to continue watching this potentially huge El Niño, Big Sky isn't exactly hitting the panic button. 

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For the rest of Montana's ski areas, though, we'll have to wait and see how the winter weather develops. 

We're still months away from knowing exactly what kind of snow season we're going to have. 

For now, we've got two very different long-range forecasts, a potentially historic El Niño and a whole lot of Montana winter still ahead of us. 

Personally, I'm just hoping Mother Nature decides to give us plenty of snow.